Elkhart, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

551
FXUS63 KIWX 041050
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
650 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance of rain (40-60%) tonight, primarily south of
  US 24.

- Dry to begin Friday followed by an increasing chance of rain
  from south to north.

- A period of heavy rain is expected Friday night through
  Saturday which will worsen any ongoing flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Impressive shortwave disturbance over the swrn US in tandem with nrn
stream disturbance driving through Hudson Bay will yield a wet short
term as broad, strong warm advection kicks in by evening. However
shallow and dry post frontal airmass in place will take some time in
saturating and will truncate prior pops to late aftn period.

Otherwise sfc frontal zone will attempt to mix back north into cntrl
IN overnight with consensus track of weak sfc wave from approx HUF-
MZZ-FDY with heaviest overnight rainfall along or just left of this
track. Considerable spread though in placement of stripe of heaviest
rain and will punt any short term decision on flood watch expansion.
Nonetheless much greater nrn stream suppression and slower kickout
of deep layer swrn upper trough looks to steer second round of heavy
rainfall well south of the area Sat night. Will hedge pops
considerably lower Sat-Sat night to account for otherwise good
00Z based model agreement.

Thereafter robust upper troughing carves out from the lakes through
ern Canada which will yield unseasonably cool and at times showery
wx as series of disturbances drop through amplified ern NOAM
flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A surface high pressure area over northern Lower Michigan will
move rapidly east and allow a strong wave along the front that
had dipped south of the Ohio River to move north. This system
will bring an quick intrusion of low level moisture, clouds,
rain and lower ceilings and visibilities. Conditions will
rapidly become IFR just after 00Z when the heaviest rain is
expected to fall. It is unlikely ceilings will improve to MVFR
by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ009-017-018-020-
     022>027-032>034.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Skipper